Good morning. Welcome back. It’s Isabella here, coming to you from Cardiff, where the Big Issue is based this week for our Big Community Roadshow.

We’ve been on the streets of the Welsh capital with our reporters and outreach staff taking part in a busy line-up of community events.

Our editorial team has been speaking to the public and finding out the stories that matter to the people of Cardiff and South Wales. We’ve had people chatting to us about the realities of renting in the city, their thoughts on the disability benefit cuts, the situation for refugees and asylum seekers and more. We’ve got the big issues covered while we’re in the city.

There’s been a five-a-side football to honour much-loved Big Issue vendor Mark Richards, who died last year after more than a decade selling the magazine on Cardiff’s Queen Street. And last night, we held our Big Debate, which was filled with lively conversation about the biggest issues facing communities in Wales.

Meanwhile, our outreach teams hit the streets to drum up support for our Poverty Zero campaign. We’re calling on governments to set poverty reduction targets and hold them legally accountable to those commitments. You can sign our petition to back the campaign.

In this week’s newsletter, we bring you the start of our stories in Cardiff – from whether Reform UK could be about to get into office in Wales to whether tenants should get two-months’ rent compensation from their landlord when they’re evicted.  

If you’ve got a story to share, we want to listen. Get in touch at isabella.mcrae@bigissue.com or share your story here.

The way Wales does elections is about to change. But could it pave the way for Reform UK?

With a 103-year winning streak, Welsh Labour might just be the most successful election-winning party in history.

The party has held the majority of Wales’ Westminster seats since 1922, and led every post-1999 devolution parliament in Cardiff Bay. But could the 2026 Senedd elections end this unbroken run?

The party’s predicted vote share in Wales currently sits at 18%, a new YouGov poll suggests – far lower than the figures boasted by Plaid Cymru (30%) and Reform UK (25%).

Nationally, the first-past-the-post model prevents smaller parties – even those with a significant vote share – from picking up large numbers of parliamentary seats.

But Wales is different. From 2026, the Welsh parliament (the Senedd) will be elected on a wholly proportional basis, meaning the number of votes a party receives will correlate to the number of seats it secures. 

Current voting intention would see Plaid Cymru pick up 35 of the 90 Senedd seats on offer. Reform would clinch 30 or so, with Labour reduced to a paltry 19. 

The next Senedd could look “very different indeed”, experts told Big Issue.

Lottie Elton investigates. Read the story here.

In case you missed it

Labour's poverty failure 'risks driving voters to Reform UK', warns Big Issue founder. YouGov polling shows that 68% of Reform UK supporters believe Labour are failing on poverty. Find out more.

Majority of Brits disapprove of Labour's approach to tackling poverty, Big Issue polling finds. YouGov’s exclusive poll for Big Issue found growing discontent with the government’s attempts to tackle poverty. But Big Issue Group is taking action. Read more.

Sam Thompson on his mammoth 260-mile challenge for Soccer Aid: 'I've got to do something'. The reality TV star speaks to the Big Issue about why he is undertaking an immense challenge to run and cycle for UNICEF. Read about it.

Bill Gates is giving away his £150bn fortune – and we think we know how to spend it. Accusing Elon Musk of killing the world's poor, Gates has announced he'll be giving away nearly his entire fortune within the next 20 years. Get the story.

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Should tenants get two-months' rent compensation from their landlord when they're evicted?

Being evicted can cost tenants an estimated £2,000 on top of the stress of finding a new place to live – but a new proposal to give renters compensation to ease the pain has been rejected.

The Welsh government published a feasibility study last week assessing a proposal for tenants to be given two months of rent as compensation when they are hit with a no-fault eviction.

Generation Rent proposed the idea to deter landlords from opting for an eviction and to protect tenants from costs. The Senedd’s Local Government and Housing Committee recommended the Welsh government adopt the idea at the end of 2024.

But the government assessment rejected the idea over fears it will increase private rents, lead to higher costs for landlords and see low-income renters have their benefits stopped.

For Cardiff renter Kate, the idea of receiving compensation for being evicted is a positive one.

Speaking to Big Issue as part of our Community Roadshow in the Welsh capital, the 23-year-old said she received an eviction notice at the end of 2024 that was later found to not be valid after they challenged.

“I think that tenants should be compensated if they are evicted because they have got a right to enjoy the place that they’re in,” Kate says.

“If they are being forced to move out for no good reason, they should absolutely have something to help ease that position. Moving is a big stress on anyone, emotionally, physically and financially, so I think compensation should happen.”

Liam Geraghty reports. Read the full story.

Inside this week's Big Issue magazine

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Big Issue Team